Julia Gillard's ''Malaysian solution'' fails the test of toughness her Government craves, by being capped.
But the expensive deal could deter boat arrivals if potential passengers are actually told they will be sent to the back of a 90,000-long queue in Malaysia.
As well, they should be told there is no prospect of being among the 4000 to be sent from Malaysia to Australia in the next four years.
The question with no answer right now is: What happens after 800 boat people are forced on to aircraft bound for Kuala Lumpur? Cabinet must have a back-up plan, surely, to avoid the policy falling flat. Is it Nauru?
Last night Immigration Minister Chris Bowen suggested the plan was a pilot, and could be extended after the cap was reached.
The flow of boats to Australia has slowed recently, possibly due to the announcement in May that Australia would send new arrivals to Malaysia.
But the reality is that 11,000 people have arrived on boats over the past three years and more than 500 in the 11 weeks since the people swap with Malaysia was agreed in principle.
John Howard's harsh ''Pacific solution'' was not constrained by pre-determined allocations. And he did not like to acknowledge that the majority of the people sent to Nauru were subsequently brought to Australia as refugees.
What was important for his political fortune was that shirking Australia's international obligations was drowned out by voters' enthusiasm for his ''toughness''. There was cheering in Penrith and the boats stopped, for whatever reasons.
Gillard will launch an aggressive campaign in the region that will target asylum-seekers with echoes of Howard's ''We will decide'' message. Australia has Malaysia's agreement that boat people will not be caned and will be given a special exemption to be allowed to work, if they can find it, while they wait in the queue for their refugee claims to be assessed.
Will pregnant women and unaccompanied teenage girls be sent to Malaysia? Probably not.
But the expensive deal could deter boat arrivals if potential passengers are actually told they will be sent to the back of a 90,000-long queue in Malaysia.
As well, they should be told there is no prospect of being among the 4000 to be sent from Malaysia to Australia in the next four years.
The question with no answer right now is: What happens after 800 boat people are forced on to aircraft bound for Kuala Lumpur? Cabinet must have a back-up plan, surely, to avoid the policy falling flat. Is it Nauru?
Last night Immigration Minister Chris Bowen suggested the plan was a pilot, and could be extended after the cap was reached.
The flow of boats to Australia has slowed recently, possibly due to the announcement in May that Australia would send new arrivals to Malaysia.
But the reality is that 11,000 people have arrived on boats over the past three years and more than 500 in the 11 weeks since the people swap with Malaysia was agreed in principle.
John Howard's harsh ''Pacific solution'' was not constrained by pre-determined allocations. And he did not like to acknowledge that the majority of the people sent to Nauru were subsequently brought to Australia as refugees.
What was important for his political fortune was that shirking Australia's international obligations was drowned out by voters' enthusiasm for his ''toughness''. There was cheering in Penrith and the boats stopped, for whatever reasons.
Gillard will launch an aggressive campaign in the region that will target asylum-seekers with echoes of Howard's ''We will decide'' message. Australia has Malaysia's agreement that boat people will not be caned and will be given a special exemption to be allowed to work, if they can find it, while they wait in the queue for their refugee claims to be assessed.
Will pregnant women and unaccompanied teenage girls be sent to Malaysia? Probably not.
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